October 31 2025

Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released new home-price data this week covering the month of August. The message is unchanged: prices remain higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. Case-Shiller’s national annual gain eased to 1.5%, the smallest in more than 2 years, while FHFA is near its lowest annual pace since 2012. Caveat: “lowest in x years” refers to growth rate, not price levels. Index levels remain near all-time highs with only modest recent slippage—nothing like 2008–09. The following chart represents the year over year change (%) in the index values above: The following chart represents the month-over-month change (%) in the index levels from the first chart.  NOTE: FHFA (blue line) is seasonally adjusted, meaning there are no regular peaks/valleys that correspond with typical real estate price cycle.  Contrast that to Case-Shiller (orange line) which DOES show those regular peaks/valleys.  On that note, August's price data (the subject of today's update) is the earliest possible month for the index to bottom out on any given year, and also an uncommon one.  More typically, the bounce occurs in October (which we won't see for 2 months due to the normal reporting lag). All that to say: year-over-year price appreciation is unlikely to improve next month, especially because 2024 was one of the uncommon years where August was the lowest index value of the year. 

October 31 2025

Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi demand remains the primary engine of growth, with larger-balance borrowers especially responsive to rate drops. It bears repeating that things look different in context.  Specifically, while refi demand looks great compared to the past 2 years, we're just now getting up to levels that were considered "very slow" historically. “Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.30 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed-rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”

October 24 2025

Existing-home sales climbed modestly in September, rising 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales were also 4.1% higher than a year earlier as easing mortgage rates and better affordability began to lift demand. Even so, the market remains well below pre-pandemic norms as many owners stay put. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Yun added that inventory levels are near a five-year high but remain below pre-COVID averages. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, September 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 490k +2.1% $500,300 +4.1% Midwest 940k -2.1% $320,800 +4.7% South 1.86m +1.6% $364,500 +1.2% West 770k +5.5% $619,100 +0.4%