December 05 2025

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity edged 1.4% lower last week according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 28. Unadjusted applications were down sharply (33%) due to the holiday. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 109% higher than the same week one year ago—still a significant year-over-year improvement, even as borrowers appear to be waiting for lower rate levels before jumping in more aggressively. Purchase applications were more resilient, rising 3% seasonally adjusted. On an unadjusted basis, purchases fell 32% from the prior week (again largely driven by the holiday), but remain 17% above last year’s levels—a continued sign of underlying buyer demand supported by easing prices and gradually improving inventory conditions. The index is currently at the highest level since early 2023. “Mortgage rates moved lower in line with Treasury yields, which declined on data showing a weaker labor market and declining consumer confidence. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.32 percent after steadily increasing over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday, refinance activity decreased across both conventional and government loans, as borrowers held out for lower rates. Purchase applications were up slightly, but we continue to see mixed results each week as the broader economic outlook remains cloudy, even as cooling home-price growth and increasing for-sale inventory bring some buyers back into the market.”

November 25 2025

Both the FHFA and the S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller home-price indices released new data this week. The message remains consistent: home prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. FHFA’s national index shows prices up 1.7% year-over-year and flat 0.0% month-over-month in September after August was revised to 0.0%. The stagnation in monthly movement reflects a clear deceleration taking hold across most regions. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% annual gain in September, down from 1.6% in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the 20-City Composite rose 0.1% month-over-month , consistent with the broader cooling trend as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand and affordability. Both indices point to similar conditions: slower appreciation, weaker monthly momentum, and home-price growth now trailing inflation. This shift further tightens affordability and underscores a market that has transitioned into a slower, more restrained phase of the cycle. Conforming Loan Limit Update (2026) The FHFA announced that the 2026 baseline conforming loan limit for one-unit properties is $832,750 , an increase of $26,250 from 2025. High-cost areas will see a limit of $1,249,125 , or 150% of the national baseline. These updates reflect slower—but still positive—home-price appreciation over the past year and will shape eligibility and pricing for conforming mortgages.

November 21 2025

Existing-home sales posted another modest gain in October, rising 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales are now 1.7% higher than a year ago as lower mortgage rates helped offset the drag from the government shutdown. Demand continues to run stronger than it did through most of 2023 and early 2024, even if the overall pace remains historically subdued. “Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He highlighted regional differences for first-time buyers: limited supply in the Northeast and high prices in the West kept activity in check, while the Midwest and South benefited from better affordability and more available listings. Yun added that decelerating rents should continue easing inflation and encouraging further Fed rate cuts, which would support additional housing demand. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, October 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 490k 0.0% $503,700 +6.5% Midwest 990k +5.3% $319,500 +4.6% South 1.86m +0.5% $362,300 +0.3% West 760k -1.3% $628,500 +0.1%