May 30 2025

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has spent more than two years stuck in a rut, held back by affordability constraints and the lingering impact of elevated mortgage rates. April's update didn’t do the market any favors, but it also didn’t tell us anything particularly new. Pending sales dropped by 6.3% in April, marking the sharpest monthly decline since mid-2022 . The index fell to 71.3 , its third-lowest level on record , and is now 2.5% lower than a year ago . That sounds like a big move—and it is, on paper—but zooming out, the broader trend remains one of stagnation. We’re still very much bouncing around at the bottom of a severely depressed range that’s held steady for the better part of a year. “With mortgage rates still hovering around 7%, home sales are stagnant as more homebuyers remain on the sidelines,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are job additions and income gains, but consumers are hesitant to move without meaningful rate relief. Increasing inventory and lowering mortgage rates will get more buyers and sellers back into the market.”

May 30 2025

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey continues to track closely with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both showed mortgage rates climbing to new multi-month highs last week, and that upward momentum once again took a toll on refinance demand—even as purchase applications managed to grind higher. “Mortgage rates reached [their] highest level since January, following higher Treasury yields,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Additional market volatility has added to the increase, keeping the mortgage-Treasury spread wider than it was earlier this year. The 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.98 percent, its third consecutive weekly increase.” Kan noted that while refis dropped, purchases continue to outperform year-ago levels thanks in part to rising inventory. That aligns with the broader data: refinance applications fell 7 percent from the previous week, while purchase applications rose 3 percent. Compared to the same week one year ago, purchases are up 18 percent and refis are still running 37 percent ahead—though that year-over-year gap is narrowing. Mortgage Rate Summary From MBA's data: 30yr Fixed: 6.98% (+0.06) | Points: 0.67 (−0.02) Jumbo 30yr: 6.93% (−0.01) | Points: 0.69 (−0.03) FHA: 6.66% (+0.06) | Points: 0.95 (−0.01) 15yr Fixed: 6.23% (+0.02) | Points: 0.67 (−0.05) 5/1 ARM: 6.22% (+0.06) | Points: 0.46 (+0.10)

May 30 2025

Both FHFA and Case Shiller released home price data this week with some mixed messages for the housing market. The first thing to remember about the major home price indices is that they run about 2 months behind--for the month of March in the present case. Another important consideration when looking at month-to-month movement is that the FHFA price index is seasonally adjusted whereas Case Shiller is not. The unadjusted Case Shiller data is easy to spot on the chart below due to its regular peaks and valleys at the same time of year, almost every year. The monthly data doesn't look too troubling.  Both metrics are mostly operating in positive territory and the FHFA index isn't any lower than it was last June.  Actually, the index itself is higher (since the chart measures month-over-month change). Rather, at -0.1% versus the previous month, FHFA's index didn't fall any faster than it did last June. Year over year data makes it easier to see longer-term trends.  It also means we don't have to worry about separating out seasonal adjustments. The chart above shows that the pace of home price appreciation has been declining for about a year, but that it remains in positive territory.  In other words, prices are still rising year over year, just not as quickly.  But that's not the full story. In addition to the unadjusted index, Case Shiller also has seasonally adjusted numbers and those show some more timely cause for concern.  Nationally, prices declined by 0.3%--the first negative reading since early 2023 and one of the biggest month over month shifts since 2022. The shift was fairly broad based across the 20 metro regions with only 6 recording price increases.