August 19 2025

Builder sentiment remains deeply subdued, as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s Housing Market Index (HMI) dipped one point in August to 32—its 16th straight month below the key 50 mark, and matching the lowest level since December 2022. Current sales conditions fell one point to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months remained steady at 43 Buyer traffic ticked up two points to 22 High mortgage rates (hovering around 6.58%), elevated new-home prices, and affordability pressures continue to weigh heavily on builder sentiment. In August, 37% of builders reported price cuts averaging 5%, while 66% offered sales incentives—the highest share seen in the post-COVID era. Affordability and demand remain persistent challenges, and despite slight improvements in buyer traffic, the overall outlook remains weak. Builders are leaning more on incentives than confidence to attract buyers. Regionally, confidence was weakest in the West, where affordability pressures are most acute and sentiment fell to its lowest since late 2022. The South also declined but continues to hover near the national average, while the Midwest held steadier and the Northeast was little changed. The divergence highlights that high-cost markets are bearing the brunt of buyer hesitation, while lower-cost regions remain relatively more resilient.

August 19 2025

The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a sharp rebound in July, with overall housing starts climbing 5.2% to a 1.428 million annual pace. Multifamily activity led the way, jumping to 470k—its highest level since May 2023—while single-family starts rose 2.8% to 939k. At the same time, permits slipped to 1.354 million, marking the lowest level in five years and underscoring a clear split between current activity and the forward-looking pipeline. The surge in multifamily starts fully reversed June’s decline and drove the bulk of July’s improvement in total starts. Single-family activity also improved modestly but remains well below earlier peaks. Completions were somewhat higher, but the more meaningful takeaway lies in the growing gap between permits and starts. Permits, by contrast, have been much more even-keeled—showing none of the sharp swings seen in housing starts. The steady decline in total permits—now at a five-year low—suggests builders remain cautious despite the recent rebound in activity. Single-family permits edged up 0.5% to 870k, but that gain was not enough to offset weakness in multifamily approvals. While July’s data highlights both the volatility of housing starts and the outsized role of multifamily construction, the deeper story is the widening divergence between starts and permits—pointing to persistent affordability issues, elevated mortgage rates, and lingering builder uncertainty about demand ahead.

August 13 2025

Mortgage application activity surged last week as sharply lower mortgage rates boosted refinance demand and gave purchase applications a modest lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending August 8, 2025. “Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since January, leading to a solid rebound in application activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.67%, the third straight weekly drop, and that pulled refinance applications to their highest level since early 2023. Purchase activity also picked up, driven by gains in both conventional and government segments.” The Refinance Index jumped 23% week-over-week and is now roughly 55% higher than the same week a year ago.  The Purchase Index rose 1.4% from the prior week and is running about 18% ahead of last year’s pace. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.67% (from 6.77%) | Points: 0.64 (up from 0.59) 15yr Fixed: 5.93% (from 6.03%) | Points: 0.63 (down from 0.66) Jumbo 30yr: 6.70% (from 6.65%) | Points: 0.56 (down from 0.59) FHA: 6.40% (from 6.47%) | Points: 0.77 (down from 0.81) 5/1 ARM: 5.80% (from 6.06%) | Points: 0.67 (up from 0.49)