Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released new home-price data this week covering the month of August. The message is unchanged: prices remain higher than a year ago, but the pace of appreciation continues to slow. Case-Shiller’s national annual gain eased to 1.5%, the smallest in more than 2 years, while FHFA is near its lowest annual pace since 2012. Caveat: “lowest in x years” refers to growth rate, not price levels. Index levels remain near all-time highs with only modest recent slippage—nothing like 2008–09. The following chart represents the year over year change (%) in the index values above: The following chart represents the month-over-month change (%) in the index levels from the first chart. NOTE: FHFA (blue line) is seasonally adjusted, meaning there are no regular peaks/valleys that correspond with typical real estate price cycle. Contrast that to Case-Shiller (orange line) which DOES show those regular peaks/valleys. On that note, August's price data (the subject of today's update) is the earliest possible month for the index to bottom out on any given year, and also an uncommon one. More typically, the bounce occurs in October (which we won't see for 2 months due to the normal reporting lag). All that to say: year-over-year price appreciation is unlikely to improve next month, especially because 2024 was one of the uncommon years where August was the lowest index value of the year.
Mortgage applications jumped sharply last week, driven by lower rates and a rebound in refinance activity. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 24, total volume rose 7.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 7% unadjusted. The Refinance Index increased 9% from the previous week and is now 111% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi demand remains the primary engine of growth, with larger-balance borrowers especially responsive to rate drops. It bears repeating that things look different in context. Specifically, while refi demand looks great compared to the past 2 years, we're just now getting up to levels that were considered "very slow" historically. “Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate down to 6.30 percent, its lowest level since September 2024. This recent decline in rates spurred the second consecutive week of increased refinance activity, driven mainly by conventional refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The ARM share of applications, which had been trending higher, dipped below 10 percent last week, as lower rates prompted more borrowers to choose fixed-rate loans. Additionally, the average loan size of a refinance application remained elevated at $393,900, as borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be sensitive to rate movements. Purchase applications increased compared to a holiday-shortened week across most loan types. However, USDA applications fell more than 26 percent, impacted by the ongoing government shutdown.”
Existing-home sales climbed modestly in September, rising 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales were also 4.1% higher than a year earlier as easing mortgage rates and better affordability began to lift demand. Even so, the market remains well below pre-pandemic norms as many owners stay put. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Yun added that inventory levels are near a five-year high but remain below pre-COVID averages. “Many homeowners are financially comfortable, resulting in very few distressed properties and forced sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, September 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 490k +2.1% $500,300 +4.1% Midwest 940k -2.1% $320,800 +4.7% South 1.86m +1.6% $364,500 +1.2% West 770k +5.5% $619,100 +0.4%
Mortgage application activity edged lower last week, driven by purchases, but the decline was marginal compared to recent swings. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 17, total volume slipped 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 0.2% unadjusted. The Refinance Index rose 4% from the previous week and was 81% higher than the same week one year ago. The uptick was driven by a 6% increase in conventional refinances and a 12% jump in FHA refinances as borrowers capitalized on the lowest rates in a month. “The lowest mortgage rates in a month spurred an increase in refinance activity, including another pickup in ARM applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The refinance index increased 4 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional refinances and a 12 percent increase in FHA refinance applications, as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly mortgage payment. VA refinances bucked the trend and were down 12 percent.” Purchase applications decreased 5% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted, but remained 20% stronger than a year ago. While activity has cooled from early-fall highs, demand remains resilient amid improving inventory and a more stable rate environment. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 55.9% of total applications from 53.6% the week prior. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share climbed to 10.8%. The FHA share rose to 21.8%, while the VA share declined to 13.5%.
Mortgage application activity declined again last week, though the drop was more moderate than the prior week’s pullback. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 10, total volume fell 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2% unadjusted. The Refinance Index slipped 1% from the previous week but remains 59% higher than the same week one year ago. Refi activity has flattened out after September’s surge but continues to hold at elevated levels as some FHA borrowers take advantage of a rate gap of more than 10 basis points below conventional loans. “Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing slightly to 6.42 percent. Mortgage applications were lower than the week before, as conventional and VA applications saw declines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA applications saw a stronger week, and FHA refinance applications in particular increased 12 percent as the FHA rate stayed more than 10 basis points lower than the conventional fixed rate. Purchase applications declined for the third consecutive week but remained 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace as improving inventory conditions in certain markets continue to maintain homebuyer interest.” Purchase applications decreased 3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and 2% unadjusted, but were still 20% stronger than a year ago. Activity continues to show resilience relative to last year’s depressed levels as buyers respond to slightly better inventory conditions.
Mortgage application activity declined again last week as refi demand continues pulling back after the surge in mid September. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, total volume fell 4.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 8% from the previous week but remains 18% higher than the same week one year ago. Refinancing activity pulled back broadly across conventional and VA segments after climbing to multi-year highs in September. This is a logical move considering rates were at long-term lows in mid-September and then rose sharply to the present range on September 17/18. “With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance volume remains somewhat elevated relative to levels of a month ago. Purchase activity declined by about 1 percent for the week but continues to show moderate growth on an annual basis, and stronger growth for FHA loans, favored by first-time homebuyers.” Purchase applications slipped 1% on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis but were still 14% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 53.3% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share increased to 9.5%. The FHA share rose to 18.5%, while the VA share edged up to 16.3%.
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −1.1% Midwest: +8.7% South: +3.1% West: +5.0% Regional YoY Change Northeast: +2.6% Midwest: +6.7% South: +4.2% West: +0.2% Three of the four regions posted solid monthly gains, led by the Midwest and West. On a yearly basis, all four regions were slightly positive, with the Midwest again the strongest performer.
Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the "lowest in x years" classification doesn't mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive--something that's still easily the case in annual terms. Another way to visualize this is with the simple price indices themselves (NOT the percent change). Note: the following chart's y axis is normalized such that 100 = 100 for both indices (which simply makes it easier to see correlation). The takeaway from this second chart is quite different. Prices remain near all-time highs and have only ebbed slightly in recent months. None of the moderation in prices over the past few years even belongs in the same conversation as the massive correction seen during the great financial crisis. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) July: −0.2%; June was unrevised at −0.2% YoY: +2.8% from July 2024 to July 2025 All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.6% in the Mountain division to +6.5% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted)
Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. "Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 55.0% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 8.4%. The FHA share increased to 16.8%, while the VA share declined to 16.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:
Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , down 0.2% from July but 1.8% higher than a year ago. Sales have now hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years, reflecting the same constrained but stable environment that has defined the market since 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said mortgage rates are beginning to ease and inventory is slowly improving, which should help future sales. He added that record-high housing wealth and a strong stock market may support move-up activity, even as the lower end of the market remains tight. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, August 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 480k -4.0% $534,200 +6.2% Midwest 960k +2.1% $330,500 +4.5% South 1.83m -1.1% $364,100 +0.4% West 730k +1.4% $624,300 +0.6% National Market Stats
