December 11 2024

The Mortgage Bankers Association is out with the latest survey of mortgage applications and refinance activity led the charge this week.  In fact, purchase activity declined a bit and refis saw their best weekly gains since September. The following chart shows the week over week change in the refi index: At first glance, it would be easy to assume that this is due to some sort of distortion in the week after Thanksgiving, but if that was the case, we would have seen a similar outlier in the other direction last week.  It's more likely that the sharp decline in rates is the x factor. Notably, MBA's weekly survey data only shows rates declining from 6.69 to 6.67, but MND's daily rates tell a different story with a drop from 6.88 to 6.68.  That 0.20% decline would certainly be enough to account for the jump in activity, especially in a market where the outright activity is so historically low. Other highlights from this week's MBA survey: Refi share of total apps increased to 46.8% from 38.7% Share of VA applications increased to 16.3% from 13.6% 5/1 ARM rates dropped to 5.81 from 6.24

November 29 2024

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its weekly application survey results on Wednesday.  The highlight was a 12.43% increase in purchase applications from the previous week.  That brought the purchase index to the highest levels since February. As has been and continues to be the case, there's an obvious counterpoint to any of these periodic surges: the broader context.  In other words, yes, these are the highest levels since February, but even if we go back to February 2023, the range since then is historically low and sideways. With that in mind, we're equipped to digest the refinance index with a grain of salt.  At first glance, we might lament the evaporation of the recent surge in September. But the broader context suggests that we can simply be in a perpetual state of lamenting refi demand for more than 2 years now. Other highlights from this week's application data (current week change % vs previous week): Refinance share of total apps 38.8  vs 41.0 FHA share of total apps 16.0 vs 16.6 VA share of total apps 12.4 vs 13.6 Week over week change in interest rates Conforming 30yr fixed 6.86 vs 6.90 Jumbo 30yr 6.97  vs 7.03 FHA 30yr 6.61 vs 6.68